Working papers

• Crises and Land Grabbing , with Tommaso Sonno

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  Do multinationals engage in rent-seeking behaviour in developing countries during crises? With a difference in discontinuity approach, we investigate this question in the Liberian palm oil sector during the Ebola epidemic. We observe a sharp increase in deforestation, which produced a dramatic growth in newly planted palm oil trees and a 1428% increase in palm oil exports. We also show that the probability of forest fire – the fastest way to clear forests and start new production – increased by 125% in the same period. Overall, our results indicate that crises may propel rapacity behaviours by multinational companies thanks to a diversion of attention toward the emergency.

  **Presented at**: Bologna University, Ghent University (ETSG), Bocconi University (LEAP seminar), Online Political Economy Seminar Series, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (Jamboree seminar), University College London

  Press: Africa at LSE

• Digging Deeper: Mining Companies and Armed Bands in the DRC, with Eliana La Ferrara

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  We investigate the relationship between armed groups and large-scale mining firms in the Democratic Republic of Congo using geo-referenced data over 2000-2015. We start by showing that the pattern of links between armed bands and concession owners significantly departs from the random benchmark. To understand these patterns, we develop a statistical detection algorithm which flags owner-band dyads based on repeated interaction and anomalous bands' movements. Results indicate that flagged dyads are significantly more likely to be observed together, also in very far away mineral concessions. We next explore the nature of these contacts. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that mining companies and armed bands engage in repeated interactions, where the latter help clear the territory from competing armed bands and destabilize the surrounding environment in a way that potentially allows to access cheaper labor. To conclude, we show an increase in mining production after the start of these relationships.

  **Presented at**: Harvard PolEcon Seminar, Harvard Kennedy School Seminar, Havard Kennedy School (PIEP Conference), Washington University (PECO), University College London

Working in Progress

• Criminal Organization

• Criminal Competition

• Informality trap

Policy Reports

Country Risk Premiums: what we know and why they are not working well (2023). Finance for Peace Initiative (Interpeace - UN). Joint with Jeremy Boccanfuso, Vincenzo Scrutinio, and Tommaso Sonno

Peace Impact of Private Investments: Evidence from Multinationals investments in Africa (2022). Finance for Peace Initiative (Interpeace - UN). Joint with Tommaso Sonno.

Voucher: uso e contestualizzazione alla luce del Covid-19 (2020). ADAPT Working Papers. Joint with Enrico Cavallotti, Maddalena Conte, Sergio Inferrera, Lorenzo Navarini, and Filippo Passerini (in Italian).